Thursday, May 14, 2009

my poll projections

dont worry i had not started my sideline buisness as most of engineers or wannabe is doing now--a-days in time of recession but it is actually a result of my free time which i am spending.thanks to bit mesra i m at home and has nothing to do except to watch tv .tv guys have nothing to show except two ipl's

ipl-indian political league

ipl-indian premire league

i find the second one quite boring n insignificant.on the contrary the first one is damn intresting

as it is not just about entertainment its about ourselves.lets come to point my poll projection going state by state are

ANDHRA PRADESH-i dont think upa will be as lucky in this state as it was in 2004 .but it will not be complete sweep out by tdp+trs[thanks to chiru] but certainly congress may end up at may be 18 seats in andhra.tdp can finish at 16-17 while trs[now with nda] can get 5 seats.so a significant loss for upa.although nda is also not in gain without trs.

assam-for assam it can be 7 for upa and 7 for nda may be.so no major gains or losses in this state.

bihar-the most drastic change will occur here for sure.nitish development agenda will surely overpower laloo caste politics.well this state can give 30 seats to nda n upa[along with laloo n paswan] can end up in single digit so bihar will see a role reversal now.bye bye laloo

chattisgarh-again it will be 10-1 for nda.no losses no gains.thsnks to development works of cm raman singh

gujarat-19 for bjp n 7 for congress dat means modi magic continues n 5 seats will be gained by nda.

harayana-it will be 5 for upa n 4 for nda so upa will dip by 4

himachal-2-2 for both

jharkhand-8 for nda n 6 for upa so a great setback here tooo for upa.

kerala -may be 13 for upa n 7 for left

tamilnadu-well this is the state were exit polls will go wrong it will be huge advantage to 3rd front this time n upa can barely come in 2 digits .so a loss of 25 seats may be in tamilnadu.

rajasthan-a gain of 10 for upa dat means may be 13 for upa n 12 for nda

maharshtra-no significant change at least 26 for nda

west bengal-it will belong to left .but upa here can gain considerably

orissa-ceratin gain for congress

karnataka-no significant change

punjab-considerable loss for nda may end up at 4-5

uttar pradesh-varun magic will work nda can go upto20+.upa can go upto double figures

so in short what we can say is nda will gain in bihar[20 seats],jharkhand-7 seats,gujarat-5,uttar pradesh, andhra but will loose some seats in rajasthan,orissa,punjab,madhya pradesh[2 max],karnataka[2max]

but one thing is interesting

bihar,jharkhand,gujarat,harayana are only the states where nda will gain because of upa loss

while upa gain from nda will be confined to orissa,rajsthan,punjab

in all other sates where upa is loosing considerably like andhra,tanil nadu it will be 3rd front who is gaining while upa gain in wb n kerala is from left front losses

so in sort after reading this whole article i m sure you will be confused like i m but here are some major points which i thin can happen

1.NDa will be larest pre-poll alliance but will be far away from magic figures

2.upa will be close second

3.it will be jayalalitha,cb naidu n mayawati who can decide country's next pm

but i dont think it will be manmohan,advani chances are also less[but more than manmohan]

we will have a surprise this time like in 1996 may be

n two names which i think can be

sharad pawar-it is wide spread dat he wans to become pm so he can do some permutations n combinations for himself

but the front runner is nitish kumar-no party except rjd,ljp[who cares about them anyway]

n because of his clean n silent image he can be next pm.

although these ones are unlikely but as it is said

PREDICT THE UNPREDICTED IN INDIAN POLITICS

NOTE-PLEASE IGNORE THE SPELLING N GRAMMAR MISTAKES IF ANY AS IT WAS WRITTEN IN VERY SHORT PERIOD.

DISCLAIMER-I DONT HOLD ANY RESPONSIBILITY IF PROJECTION GOES WRONG AS PROJECTIONS ARE MADE TO GO WRONG

and what more my prediction is wrong although UPA won which really makes me sad

i wanted a non-bjp,non-congress govt